Based on the observations of atmospheric and oceanic conditions last year in Indonesia, Indian Ocean and the Pacific, Climatology Meteorology and Geophysics Agency concluded that the dry season in most areas will retreat 20-40 days.

Areas west of Sumbawa Island is supposed to enter the dry season since the mid-and late April there was still heavy rain that caused flash floods early this May. The initial estimated dry in Jakarta is still the same with forecasts Climatology Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), ie mid-May or early June.

A number of areas in West Java, such as new Garut hit by landslides, and other areas with high risk of landslides still need to be very careful. Drought in southern West Java are estimated to begin in late June.

"Normally in the Java drought occurred early April. The drought this year will come the beginning of June," said Chief Climate Center, Agro-climate, and the Maritime Climate BMKG Nurhayati, Sunday (08/05/2011).

On the north coast of Java, particularly Karachi which is the center of the rice, season setback will have a positive impact. "Until the end of May, the area is still relatively a lot of rainy days. This information can be used for re-planting of rice farmers earlier this month, "he said.

In contrast, drought had a negative impact setback for the production of salt and sugar cane plantations. When you get a lot of rain, sugar cane crops would be reduced. Conversely, high water content increases.

The nature of rain

The nature of the rainy season like the present transition period can be shortened with high intensity, sometimes accompanied by strong winds. Before the rain, the sun shines hot and the air was stifling.

"Plus the low pressure and tropical cyclones Aere, rainfall became more dense and longer," said Chief Climate Early Warning subfields BMKG Erwin ES Makmur.

According to him, cyclones / tropical storms Aere caused heavy rains during early May. Cyclone is an area of ​​lower pressure than its surroundings so that the wind moving toward the location of cyclone.

Cyclone in the northwest of Halmahera make many parts of Indonesia through the wind carrying moisture. As a result, many rain clouds formed over Indonesia that made the rainy season lasts sporadic transition.

The storm also made waves as high as 3-5 meters most likely to occur in the Halmahera Sea, Pacific Ocean north of Indonesia and Philippine waters.

Environmental management

Extreme weather lately plus the increasingly poor quality of the environment to make various hydro-meteorological disasters such as floods, flash floods, and landslides occur more frequently. Poor environmental quality is marked rampant deforestation, abuse of land use, poor watershed management, until the silting up rivers.

"A variety of environmental disasters due to poor economic conditions can affect society as a whole," said the former Minister of Environment Sonny Keraf.

Currently, the arrangement of the environment requires special attention and serious. It can not be done instantly, but it takes a long time.

According to Sonny, economic development must be based on capability and carrying capacity of the environment. Region of origin can not pursue profit shortly.

The use of the region should also refer to an agreed layout, not sacrifice function for spatial economic development. Economic development without ensuring the environmental conditions would not be able to provide welfare society. What happened, environmental management is still overlapping inter-institutional and governance.